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The Atlantic在最近訪問了剛從Intel CEO一職卸任的Paul Otellini，在採訪中除了談到Intel近十年以來的獲利成長，以及他對於ARM的看法之外，還提到了Apple在將Mac轉移到Intel平台後不久，Intel決定不為Apple之後的新產品——iPhone生產晶片的事。


“We ended up not winning it or passing on it, depending on how you want to view it. And the world would have been a lot different if we’d done it. The thing you have to remember is that this was before the iPhone was introduced and no one knew what the iPhone would do…At the end of the day, there was a chip that they were interested in that they wanted to pay a certain price for and not a nickel more and that price was below our forecasted cost. I couldn’t see it. It wasn’t one of these things you can make up on volume. And in hindsight, the forecasted cost was wrong and the volume was 100x what anyone thought.
The lesson I took away from that was, while we like to speak with data around here, so many times in my career I’ve ended up making decisions with my gut, and I should have followed my gut.
My gut told me to say yes."
到最後，我們沒有拿到、或是說我們選擇不去做這份合約，這取決於你怎樣看待這件事。如果我們拿了這份合約，也許整個世界會變得很不一樣。你必須先了解，這件事是發生在iPhone發表前，沒有人知道iPhone未來會產生怎樣的影響。事情到最後，雖然Apple對一款晶片非常感興趣，但是他們絲毫不願意提高採購價格，而他們開出的價格低於我們所預測的成本。
我不能接受，但是這並不是那種可以用數量來決定的事。事後來看，我們所預測的成本是錯的，而需求量超過了所有人預估的100倍。
我得到的教訓是——雖然我們習慣依據我們周圍的資料作出決定，但是在我職業生涯的眾多時刻裡，最後我還是憑著我的直覺作出決定。而在當時，我應該要跟著我的直覺走才是。
我的直覺告訴我要說「Yes」。
via Paul Otellini’s Intel/ Can the Company That Built the Future Survive It? – Alexis C. Madrigal – The